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Bloomin' Brands to Report Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Bloomin' Brands faces Q3 earnings pressure from weaker traffic, food inflation and turnaround costs.
Outback's service improvements and better menu mix are expected to support comparable sales growth.
BLMN expects a Q3 adjusted loss of 22-27 cents per share, whereas it incurred a loss of 3 cents last year.
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (BLMN - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 6, before market open. The upcoming quarter is expected to reflect the impacts of ongoing traffic pressure and higher food costs, partly offset by improved menu mix, Outback turnaround efforts, productivity savings and restaurant refresh initiatives.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and revenues topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 39.3% and 1.7%, respectively. Year over year, the top and bottom lines grew 1.3% and 21.9%, respectively.
Earnings of Bloomin’ Brands topped the consensus mark in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 34%, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Placed for BLMN Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter loss has been unchanged at 24 cents per share over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a wider loss than the 3 cents incurred in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $924.4 million, suggesting a 0.5% year-over-year decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For 2026, Bloomin’ Brands is expected to register a 0.8% increase in revenues to $3.99 billion from a year ago. Its earnings of 96 cents per share are expected to decline 15.8% year over year from the $1.14 per share reported in 2025.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Shape BLMN’s Q3 Results
Traffic Pressure to Weigh on Restaurant Sales
Bloomin’ Brands is likely to have faced continued traffic pressure across its restaurant brands in the third quarter. The company expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth of 1-2%, supported by an improvement in sales mix, partly offset by slightly lower traffic. This compares with 1.2% growth in combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales in the prior-year quarter, when traffic declined 0.1%. The decision not to repeat certain profit-dilutive offers from last year is also likely to have affected customer traffic. Lower traffic at Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s is likely to have limited restaurant sales growth.
Commodity Inflation & Higher Marketing Expenses to Pressure Margins
Higher food costs are likely to have been a challenge for Bloomin’ Brands in the third quarter. The company expects commodity inflation of 4.5-5.5% for 2026, while pricing is expected to be 4.5%. This is likely to have limited the benefit of menu price increases and put pressure on restaurant margins. Also, increased marketing investments in the second half of 2026 are likely to have added to operating expenses. Higher advertising expenses, combined with food cost inflation, are likely to have weighed on near-term profitability.
Turnaround Investments & Brazil Loss to Weigh on Earnings
Bloomin’ Brands’ ongoing Outback turnaround is likely to have added to operating costs in the third quarter. Investments in food quality, service improvements and restaurant refreshes are expected to have added to expenses. In addition, the company expects tax expenses of $5 million and a loss of $2 million from its 33% ownership in Brazil in the quarter. These factors are likely to have weighed on the company’s bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
For the third-quarter 2026, the company expected adjusted loss per share to be 22-27 cents per share, whereas it incurred an adjusted loss of 3 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. The wider expected loss reflects the near-term costs associated with the turnaround and other expenses.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for BLMN Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bloomin’ Brands for the quarter to be reported. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen, which is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: BLMN has an Earnings ESP of -0.91%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Shares of Bloomin' Brands have gained 65.8% year to date (“YTD”), outperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, the Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 Index.
BLMN’s Price Performance (YTD)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the same time frame, the stock has also outperformed other industry players like Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) , McDonald's Corp. (MCD - Free Report) and Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) . Year to date, Darden has gained 19.2%, while McDonald's and Shake Shack have declined 13.9% and 13.6%, respectively.
Outback Turnaround Efforts to Support Comparable Sales
Bloomin’ Brands’ ongoing Outback turnaround efforts are likely to have supported comparable restaurant sales in the third quarter. The company expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth of 1-2% for the quarter. The turnaround focuses on improving steak quality, enhancing service and maintaining consistency in execution. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth is pegged at 1.68%.
The company rolled out a service model across all Outback restaurants in the second quarter, reducing the server-to-table ratio from six tables to four during peak hours. Guest feedback also improved, with service scores exceeding 90% top box and increasing nearly three points year over year. These efforts are likely to have supported the dining experience and customer engagement.
Improved Menu Mix to Support Average Check Growth
Improved menu mix is likely to have supported average check growth in the third quarter. At Outback, the company has seen better mix trends from combo offerings featuring steak and non-steak proteins, customer upgrades to premium steak cuts, and demand for non-alcoholic mocktails. The Aussie 3-Course offering has also supported customer interest in affordable menu options, while premium sides and desserts have encouraged customers to trade up. These menu initiatives are likely to have supported average check growth and helped improve the sales mix.
Productivity Savings to Help Offset Turnaround Costs
Productivity savings are likely to have helped Bloomin’ Brands offset part of the costs associated with the Outback turnaround. The company remains on track to achieve $30 million in productivity savings for 2026. These savings are expected to have supported cost control while the company invests in food quality, service improvements and restaurant refreshes. With turnaround investments reduced to $36 million from the earlier plan of $50 million, the company expects net investment of $6 million after accounting for productivity savings.
BLMN Stock’s Valuation Trend
From a valuation point of view, the stock is still trading at a discount. Bloomin' Brands' forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 9.71, much lower than the industry’s 21.93.
BLMN’s Valuation P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
By comparison, Darden trades at 18.67X, McDonald's at 19.43X and Shake Shack at 52.81X forward earnings.
Conclusion
Bloomin’ Brands is likely to have faced near-term pressure from lower traffic, higher commodity costs and turnaround-related expenses in the third quarter. However, improved menu mix, productivity savings and ongoing Outback initiatives are expected to have provided some support.
While the stock trades at a discount to industry peers, the expected decline in 2026 earnings and operating challenges remain key concerns. Investors may consider holding on to the stock while monitoring the company’s earnings performance, traffic trends and progress on the Outback turnaround.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Bloomin' Brands to Report Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (BLMN - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 6, before market open. The upcoming quarter is expected to reflect the impacts of ongoing traffic pressure and higher food costs, partly offset by improved menu mix, Outback turnaround efforts, productivity savings and restaurant refresh initiatives.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and revenues topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 39.3% and 1.7%, respectively. Year over year, the top and bottom lines grew 1.3% and 21.9%, respectively.
Earnings of Bloomin’ Brands topped the consensus mark in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 34%, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Placed for BLMN Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter loss has been unchanged at 24 cents per share over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a wider loss than the 3 cents incurred in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $924.4 million, suggesting a 0.5% year-over-year decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For 2026, Bloomin’ Brands is expected to register a 0.8% increase in revenues to $3.99 billion from a year ago. Its earnings of 96 cents per share are expected to decline 15.8% year over year from the $1.14 per share reported in 2025.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Shape BLMN’s Q3 Results
Traffic Pressure to Weigh on Restaurant Sales
Bloomin’ Brands is likely to have faced continued traffic pressure across its restaurant brands in the third quarter. The company expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth of 1-2%, supported by an improvement in sales mix, partly offset by slightly lower traffic. This compares with 1.2% growth in combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales in the prior-year quarter, when traffic declined 0.1%. The decision not to repeat certain profit-dilutive offers from last year is also likely to have affected customer traffic. Lower traffic at Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s is likely to have limited restaurant sales growth.
Commodity Inflation & Higher Marketing Expenses to Pressure Margins
Higher food costs are likely to have been a challenge for Bloomin’ Brands in the third quarter. The company expects commodity inflation of 4.5-5.5% for 2026, while pricing is expected to be 4.5%. This is likely to have limited the benefit of menu price increases and put pressure on restaurant margins. Also, increased marketing investments in the second half of 2026 are likely to have added to operating expenses. Higher advertising expenses, combined with food cost inflation, are likely to have weighed on near-term profitability.
Turnaround Investments & Brazil Loss to Weigh on Earnings
Bloomin’ Brands’ ongoing Outback turnaround is likely to have added to operating costs in the third quarter. Investments in food quality, service improvements and restaurant refreshes are expected to have added to expenses. In addition, the company expects tax expenses of $5 million and a loss of $2 million from its 33% ownership in Brazil in the quarter. These factors are likely to have weighed on the company’s bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
For the third-quarter 2026, the company expected adjusted loss per share to be 22-27 cents per share, whereas it incurred an adjusted loss of 3 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. The wider expected loss reflects the near-term costs associated with the turnaround and other expenses.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for BLMN Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bloomin’ Brands for the quarter to be reported. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen, which is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: BLMN has an Earnings ESP of -0.91%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BLMN Stock’s Price Performance
Shares of Bloomin' Brands have gained 65.8% year to date (“YTD”), outperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, the Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 Index.
BLMN’s Price Performance (YTD)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the same time frame, the stock has also outperformed other industry players like Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) , McDonald's Corp. (MCD - Free Report) and Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) . Year to date, Darden has gained 19.2%, while McDonald's and Shake Shack have declined 13.9% and 13.6%, respectively.
Outback Turnaround Efforts to Support Comparable Sales
Bloomin’ Brands’ ongoing Outback turnaround efforts are likely to have supported comparable restaurant sales in the third quarter. The company expects U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth of 1-2% for the quarter. The turnaround focuses on improving steak quality, enhancing service and maintaining consistency in execution. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth is pegged at 1.68%.
The company rolled out a service model across all Outback restaurants in the second quarter, reducing the server-to-table ratio from six tables to four during peak hours. Guest feedback also improved, with service scores exceeding 90% top box and increasing nearly three points year over year. These efforts are likely to have supported the dining experience and customer engagement.
Improved Menu Mix to Support Average Check Growth
Improved menu mix is likely to have supported average check growth in the third quarter. At Outback, the company has seen better mix trends from combo offerings featuring steak and non-steak proteins, customer upgrades to premium steak cuts, and demand for non-alcoholic mocktails. The Aussie 3-Course offering has also supported customer interest in affordable menu options, while premium sides and desserts have encouraged customers to trade up. These menu initiatives are likely to have supported average check growth and helped improve the sales mix.
Productivity Savings to Help Offset Turnaround Costs
Productivity savings are likely to have helped Bloomin’ Brands offset part of the costs associated with the Outback turnaround. The company remains on track to achieve $30 million in productivity savings for 2026. These savings are expected to have supported cost control while the company invests in food quality, service improvements and restaurant refreshes. With turnaround investments reduced to $36 million from the earlier plan of $50 million, the company expects net investment of $6 million after accounting for productivity savings.
BLMN Stock’s Valuation Trend
From a valuation point of view, the stock is still trading at a discount. Bloomin' Brands' forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 9.71, much lower than the industry’s 21.93.
BLMN’s Valuation P/E (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
By comparison, Darden trades at 18.67X, McDonald's at 19.43X and Shake Shack at 52.81X forward earnings.
Conclusion
Bloomin’ Brands is likely to have faced near-term pressure from lower traffic, higher commodity costs and turnaround-related expenses in the third quarter. However, improved menu mix, productivity savings and ongoing Outback initiatives are expected to have provided some support.
While the stock trades at a discount to industry peers, the expected decline in 2026 earnings and operating challenges remain key concerns. Investors may consider holding on to the stock while monitoring the company’s earnings performance, traffic trends and progress on the Outback turnaround.